Analysis
Sectors
Reference
Essential Context

How to read a Union Budget

India's Union Budget is not one document. It is a stack of dozens of documents, each structured differently, each revealing (or concealing) different things. This explorer draws on all of them. Here is what each source is, why it matters, and where you can find it.

The Budget Documents

Budget Speech
The Finance Minister's speech in Parliament. Sets the political narrative. Full of announcements, but numbers here are often rounded or selective. Always cross-check against the Demands for Grants. Read it →
Demands for Grants (DFGs)
The actual legal document authorising spending. Each ministry/department gets one or more "Demands" numbered sequentially. DFG 87 is Rural Development. DFG 46 is Health. Each DFG contains: (a) scheme-by-scheme allocations across four years (Actual, BE, RE, and new BE), (b) revenue vs capital breakdowns, and (c) explanatory notes. There are 102 DFGs. This is where the real numbers live. All DFGs combined →
Expenditure Profile (Statements 1-27)
A set of summary tables published alongside the DFGs. Statement 1 gives the macro picture (total expenditure, CSS vs CS split). Statement 3A gives ministry-wise totals. Statement 10A tracks SC welfare allocations across all ministries. Statement 10B does the same for ST welfare. Statement 11 covers North-Eastern allocations. These cross-cutting statements often reveal what individual DFGs obscure: whether SC/ST earmarks are real or accounting fiction.
Statement 1 · Statement 3A · Statement 10A (SC) · Statement 10B (ST) · Statement 11 (NE)
Four Numbers You Always Compare
For every scheme, the budget gives four columns: Actual (24-25) = what was actually spent two years ago; Budget Estimate (BE 25-26) = what was promised last year; Revised Estimate (RE 25-26) = what was actually spent (approximately) last year, often very different from BE; Budget Estimate (BE 26-27) = what is being promised this year. The gap between BE and RE is where you find the real story: it reveals underspending (government couldn't or wouldn't spend what it announced).
CSS vs CS Schemes
Centrally Sponsored Schemes (CSS) are cost-shared with states, typically 60:40 (Centre:State). States must contribute their share. If a state is financially stressed, CSS money goes unspent. Central Sector (CS) Schemes are 100% centrally funded. When the government converts a CS scheme into a CSS (as with VB-G RAM G replacing MGNREGA), it shifts costs to states while claiming the total allocation grew.
Output-Outcome Monitoring Framework (OOMF)
Supposed to track whether money actually achieves results. Lists output indicators (how many houses built?) and outcome indicators (did poverty fall?). Critically, VB-G RAM G's OOMF entry says targets are "not amenable" to quantification, meaning the government's flagship rural employment replacement has no measurable performance standard.

Understanding Off-Budget Spending

What is a Reserve Fund?
A reserve fund is a government account that sits outside the normal budget process. Money is transferred into it (often during Revised Estimates, which get minimal parliamentary debate), and then drawn down later for spending. Because the spending happens from the fund rather than through a DFG, it does not appear as a "demand" that Parliament votes on line-by-line. The fund's operations are disclosed only in the notes to the DFG that houses it, typically buried on page 115+ of a dense PDF.
Why This Matters
In 2026-27, at least Rs 95,125 crore in social spending flows through such funds: the National Employment Guarantee Fund (NEGF) for MGNREGA, the Pradhan Mantri Swasthya Suraksha Nidhi (PMSSN) for health, the Technology and National Security Fund (TNSF) for unspecified security tech, and the Agriculture Infrastructure Development Fund (AIDF). An additional Rs 50,000 crore sits in an Economic Stabilisation Fund that has not been drawn yet and has no public explanation. These mechanisms reduce parliamentary oversight, obscure the true cost of programmes, and make it nearly impossible for external analysts to track where money goes.
How to verify
Open DFG 30 (Economic Affairs), go to pages 110-120, and look for lines labelled "Investments" and "Reserve Funds." Compare RE 25-26 (money loaded in) with BE 26-27 (money drawn out). CSEP's off-budget borrowings framework provides the analytical precedent.

The Four-Year Read

Every table in this explorer shows the same four columns. Here is how to read them critically:

ColumnWhat It ShowsWhat to Watch For
Actual 24-25Verified spent amountIf much lower than BE, the scheme has execution problems
BE 25-26Last year's promiseInflated promises create the illusion of growth
RE 25-26Last year's realityThe gap from BE is the "credibility deficit"
BE 26-27This year's promiseCompare to RE (reality) not BE (last promise)

The critical comparison is always BE 26-27 vs RE 25-26, not BE vs BE. Governments announce large BEs for political messaging, then quietly lower them in the RE. If BE 26-27 merely matches last year's BE 25-26, it is likely overstating what will actually be spent.

External Sources Used

PRS Legislative Research
Non-partisan budget analysis. Budget Analysis 2025-26
Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA)
NCAP progress tracking. 2025 NCAP Report
Centre for Science and Environment (CSE)
Air quality fund allocation analysis. NCAP Assessment
The Wire / India Forum
Employment guarantee analysis. VB-G RAM G analysis
CSEP
Off-budget borrowings framework. Working Paper
Implementation of Budget Announcements 2025-26
Government's own progress report. Read it →
16th Finance Commission Report
Fiscal federalism framework. Explanatory Memo →
Union Budget 2026-27 · 1 February 2026

The budget that moved the money where you can't see it

Rs 95,125 crore in social spending now flows through off-budget reserve funds outside parliamentary scrutiny. MGNREGA was cut 66% and replaced with a scheme that shifts costs to states. Gig worker promises abandoned. Air quality defunded. Education and women's budgets barely keep pace with inflation. Navigate using the tabs above, or start with How to Read This for context on budget documents.

₹53.47L cr
Total Expenditure
₹95,125 cr
Off-Budget Spending
+5.6%
Growth (vs ~10.5% nom. GDP)
₹1.39L cr
Education
₹1.05L cr
Health
₹28,183 cr
Women & Child

Aggregate Expenditure (Rs crore) · Source: Statement 1

CategoryActual 24-25BE 25-26RE 25-26BE 26-27YoY %
Total Budget Expenditure46,52,86750,65,34549,64,84253,47,315+5.6%
  Revenue Expenditure36,00,91439,44,25538,69,08741,25,494+4.6%
  Capital Expenditure10,51,95311,21,09010,95,75512,21,821+9.0%
Central Sector Schemes14,94,39216,21,89916,37,15617,71,928+9.3%
Centrally Sponsored Schemes4,02,3685,41,8504,20,0785,48,798+1.3%
Finance Commission Transfers1,20,8581,32,7671,52,9531,29,397-2.5%

Budget by Sector (Rs crore) · Budget Highlights

Social Sectors: BE 25-26 vs BE 26-27

Ministry Heat Map: Year-on-Year Change · Source: Statement 3A

Color: Deep cut   Cut   Below inflation (<5%)   Real growth   Major increase (>15%)

Sector Priorities: Radar (Indexed, Education=100)

Underspending: RE 25-26 as % of BE 25-26

The underspending pattern is the real story. BE numbers look adequate. But RE 2025-26 reveals massive execution failures: Drinking Water spent only 31% of its allocation. Labour spent 39%. Skill Development spent 44%. Housing spent 59%. The government announces allocations for headlines, then quietly fails to spend them.

Scheme-Level Data

Every ministry, every scheme

Click any ministry to expand its full scheme-level table. Each table shows four years of data (Actual/BE/RE/BE), the year-on-year change, OOMF targets where available, and a finding note with hyperlinked sources. Data is from the Demands for Grants and Statement 3A.

The Central Finding

Rs 95,125 crore hidden in reserve funds

Last year, Rs 41,700 crore sat in a line called "New Schemes" in DFG 30 (Economic Affairs) with no explanation. This year it shrank 95% to Rs 2,000 crore. The money didn't vanish. It moved into a web of off-budget reserve funds. For an explanation of what reserve funds are and how they work, see How to Read This.

Budget Line
₹41,700 cr
"New Schemes" BE 25-26
Reserve Funds
~₹1,10,725 cr
Loaded in RE 25-26
Off-Budget Spending
₹95,125 cr
Drawn in BE 26-27

Reserve Fund Architecture (Rs crore) · DFG 30 · DFG 87 · DFG 46

Reserve FundSource DFGRE 25-26 (Loaded)BE 26-27 (Drawn)Mechanism
NEGF (MGNREGA)DFG 87Existing balance30,000National Employment Guarantee Fund; MGNREGA wage payments
PMSSN (Health)DFG 4630,72530,725Health & Education Cess proceeds; NHM + PMJAY top-up
TNSF (Nat. Security)DFG 3030,00030,000Pre-loaded in RE; "technology for national security architecture"
AIDF (Agriculture)DFG 87Existing4,400Agriculture Infrastructure Development Fund
Econ. Stabilisation FundDFG 3050,000Not drawnNo public explanation; no drawdown conditions; no sunset clause
TOTAL~1,10,725+95,125Outside parliamentary budget scrutiny
₹39,800 crore

"Technology in National Security" (TNSF): a brand new line item in DFG 30 with zero prior history. Rs 30,000 crore flows from the pre-loaded TNSF, plus Rs 9,800 crore from budget. The entire public explanation: "Development of technology for the overall national security architecture." One sentence. No OOMF entry. No committee scrutiny.

₹50,000 crore

Economic Stabilisation Fund: Loaded into DEA during RE 2025-26. Not yet drawn in BE 2026-27. No public explanation, no drawdown conditions, no sunset clause. Larger than the entire Education CSS allocation (Rs 48,860 crore). See CSEP's framework for analytical precedent on off-budget mechanisms.

"New Schemes" Line: The Shrinking Black Box

YearBE AllocationRE (Actual Use)What It Funded (Per DFG 30 Notes)
2024-2500N/A
2025-2641,700 cr35,713 crNot specified in BE. RE notes: loaded into reserve funds
2026-272,000 crTBDCity Economic Regions (7 cities) + Regional Medical Hubs (5)

The 95% drop (Rs 41,700 to Rs 2,000 crore) occurred because the government has shifted from using "New Schemes" as a catch-all to pre-loading specific reserve funds during RE. The money doesn't disappear; it becomes harder to track. In 2026-27, the New Schemes line actually names what it funds (City Economic Regions and Medical Hubs), which is an improvement in transparency for this line but does not address the much larger sums now sitting in reserve funds.

DFG 87 (Rural Dev) + DFG 64 (Labour & Employment)

Employment & Labour: the great restructuring

This budget rewrites the entire employment architecture. MGNREGA is replaced with VB-G RAM G (shifting costs to states), e-SHRAM is dissolved into SRISTI (at 0.003% of the original budget), and a new Rs 20,000 crore formalisation scheme (PM-VBRY) targets EPFO enrolments. Gig workers, domestic workers, construction workers, and the 90% of India's workforce in informal employment get almost nothing. Sources: DFG 87, DFG 64, Budget Speech.

₹32,666 cr
DFG 64 Total
₹20,083 cr
PM-VBRY (new)
₹28 cr
SRISTI (replaces e-SHRAM)
~90%
Informal Workforce

MGNREGA to VB-G RAM G: Burden Shift

MGNREGA (100% centrally funded) was replaced with VB-G RAM G (60:40 cost-sharing). Combined allocation grew 43% on paper, but Rs 55,590 crore in annual costs shifted to state balance sheets. For what CSS vs CS means, see How to Read This. Sources: DFG 87, The Wire.

MGNREGA (Old Model)

₹88,000 cr
RE 2025-26. 100% central. 100-day guarantee. Demand-driven.

MGNREGA (New, via NEGF)

₹30,000 cr
BE 2026-27. From off-budget NEGF. Down 66%. DFG 87

VB-G RAM G (Replacement)

₹95,692 cr
60:40 CSS. 125-day guarantee. States pay 40%+ including material costs.

Annual State Burden

₹55,590 cr/yr
Bihar: Rs 2,576 cr (0.23% GSDP). Tamil Nadu, Kerala have opposed the shift.
50 days

Average MGNREGA employment in 2024-25. The 125-day guarantee would require Rs 4 lakh crore at Rs 356/day for 9 crore households. Allocation: Rs 1.26 lakh crore. Jean Drèze: "Raising the ceiling is symbolic when 98% get less than 100 days." The OOMF entry for VB-G RAM G says targets are "not amenable" to quantification.

Ministry of Labour (DFG 64): Full Breakdown

The Ministry of Labour & Employment's total allocation is Rs 32,666 crore, virtually unchanged from BE 25-26 (Rs 32,646 crore). But RE 25-26 was only Rs 12,688 crore, meaning the ministry spent 39% of its BE last year. The entire DFG is dominated by two items: the EPS pension payout and the new PM-VBRY formalisation scheme. Everything else is marginal. Source: DFG 64.

SchemeActual 24-25BE 25-26RE 25-26BE 26-27Note
Employees Pension Scheme (EPS), 199510,23511,25010,50011,144Govt contribution to EPFO pensions
PM Viksit Bharat Rozgar Yojana (PM-VBRY)20,083NEW. Replaces Employment Generation Scheme
(Old: New Employment Generation)0.1620,000848Renamed and restructured
PM Shram Yogi Maandhan232244244250Pension for unorganised workers
SRISTI (replaces e-SHRAM/NDUW)28NEW. Portal merger
(Old: e-SHRAM / NDUW)242825Dissolved into SRISTI
PM Karam Yogi Maandhan533Shopkeepers/retailers pension
Labour & Employment Statistical System (LESS)13732575Surveys & data collection
Labour Welfare (Beedi, Cine, Mine workers)40517852Welfare funds for specific worker categories
National Career Services47776080Job matching portal + career centres
Plantation Workers (Assam)63676169Social security for Assam tea workers
Establishment + Autonomous Bodies761826822852Secretariat, Labour Bureau, DGMS, DGFASLI, NLI
Grand Total (DFG 64)11,40832,64612,68832,666RE was 39% of BE

The 39% spending rate tells you everything. DFG 64 was allocated Rs 32,646 crore in BE 25-26, but actually spent only Rs 12,688 crore (RE). The gap is almost entirely PM-VBRY's predecessor: the Employment Generation Scheme got Rs 20,000 crore in BE but spent only Rs 848 crore. In 2026-27, the same scheme (renamed PM-VBRY) gets Rs 20,083 crore. The OOMF targets 84 lakh first-time EPFO registrations and 1.44 crore re-joiners, but based on last year's spending pattern, the question is whether this money will actually be disbursed.

Gig Workers: Registered, Then Abandoned

Budget 2025-26 promised Ayushman Bharat coverage for gig workers and mass registration on e-SHRAM. The Implementation document confirms what happened: 12 aggregators onboarded (Zomato, Swiggy, Uber, Ola, Amazon, Blinkit, Urban Company, Rapido, Zepto, Porter, Ecom Express, Uncle Delivery), 3 nationwide registration campaigns conducted. Result: approximately 1 lakh workers registered out of a 1 crore target. That is 0.1% achievement. Then in 2026-27, e-SHRAM's allocation was set to zero. The entire portal was merged into SRISTI at Rs 28 crore. Sources: DFG 64.

1 crore
Workers Promised
~1 lakh
Actually Registered
₹0
e-SHRAM (26-27)
₹28 cr
SRISTI (replacement)

Per-Worker Allocation

₹0.09
SRISTI gets Rs 28 crore for 31 crore registered unorganised workers. That is 9 paise per worker per year.

The Threshold Trap

38 days
Social Security Code Rules set a 90/120-day threshold. Zomato's own data shows average delivery partners work 38 days/year. Most gig workers are excluded by design.

What happened to the Ayushman Bharat promise? Budget 2025-26 explicitly said gig workers would get PM-JAY health coverage. The Implementation document confirms NHA "provided all support" to the Labour Ministry. But 2026-27 shows no allocation line for gig worker healthcare anywhere in DFG 46 (Health) or DFG 64 (Labour). The 12 aggregators were onboarded, the campaigns were run, and then the funding was pulled. PMJAY expansion for gig workers appears to have been quietly shelved.

Informal Workers: 90% of the Workforce, Under 1% of the Ministry

India has approximately 53.5 crore workers, of whom roughly 90% are in informal employment (PLFS 2023-24). The central budget's instruments for reaching them are remarkably thin. Here is every scheme that directly targets informal, unorganised, or self-employed workers, and what each actually gets:

SchemeTarget GroupBE 26-27 (Rs cr)Per-worker/yearWhat It Actually Does
PM Shram Yogi MaandhanUnorganised workers (18-40 yrs, income <15K/month)250~Rs 54Pension: Rs 3,000/month after 60. Govt matches worker contribution
PM Karam Yogi MaandhanShopkeepers, retailers, self-employed3NegligibleSame pension design. Enrollment stalled since 2020
SRISTI (ex-e-SHRAM)31 crore registered unorganised workers28Rs 0.09Portal maintenance. No benefits attached
Labour Welfare SchemeBeedi, Cine, Mine workers52Welfare funds for specific occupational categories
Plantation Workers (Assam)Tea plantation workers in Assam69Pension + deposit-linked insurance
National Career ServicesJob seekers (all)80Job matching portal. 3,000+ occupations listed
Total for informal workers4821.5% of DFG 64

Rs 482 crore for 48 crore workers. The total allocation for all schemes directly targeting informal and unorganised workers is Rs 482 crore, which amounts to roughly Rs 10 per worker per year. By contrast, the EPS (for formal sector pensioners) gets Rs 11,144 crore, and PM-VBRY (for new formal sector entrants) gets Rs 20,083 crore. The budget's employment architecture is built around formalisation. If you are already informal, and most Indians are, the budget has almost nothing for you.

PM Viksit Bharat Rozgar Yojana: Formalisation at Scale?

PM-VBRY is the budget's biggest employment bet at Rs 20,083 crore. It replaces the old Employment Generation Scheme (which spent 4.2% of its allocation last year). The scheme incentivises formal employment by subsidising EPFO contributions for first-time registrations. The OOMF targets are ambitious. Source: DFG 64.

First-Timers in EPFO

84 lakh
Part A target. New workers entering the formal EPFO system for the first time.

Re-Joiners in EPFO

1.44 crore
Part B target. Workers who had left and are incentivised to rejoin formal employment.

New Establishments

60,000
Firms brought into EPFO coverage through employer subsidies.

Predecessor Spending Rate

4.2%
Employment Generation Scheme: Rs 20,000 crore BE, Rs 848 crore RE. Benefits available Aug 2025 to Jul 2027 only.

The formalisation paradox. PM-VBRY targets workers who are on the cusp of formal employment, those whom an EPFO subsidy might tip into the formal system. This is valuable but inherently limited. India's informal economy is not informal because of a lack of EPFO subsidies. It is informal because most employment happens in firms with fewer than 10 workers, in agriculture, construction, domestic work, and self-employment. These sectors have structural barriers to formalisation (seasonal work, piece-rate payment, subcontracting chains, no fixed employer) that no payroll subsidy can address. The budget puts Rs 20,083 crore on the formalisation bet and Rs 482 crore on everything else.

Construction Workers: The Missing Billions

India has an estimated 5.5 crore construction workers. State-level Building and Other Construction Workers (BOCW) cess funds hold over Rs 38,000 crore in accumulated balances (per CAG estimates). These funds are collected as a 1% cess on construction costs but are notoriously underutilised. The central budget's role is limited: the Labour Ministry provides establishment support, and BOCW registration and welfare delivery are state subjects. But the centre has not used its convening power to push states on cess utilisation or portability of benefits for migrant construction workers.

BOCW Cess Balances

~₹38,000 cr
Accumulated across states. Less than 30% utilised historically. CAG has flagged this repeatedly.

Central Budget for Construction Workers

₹0
No dedicated central scheme. BOCW is a state subject. e-SHRAM was meant to enable portability across states. It is now dissolved.

Domestic Workers: Invisible in the Budget

India's domestic workers (estimated 5-6 crore, predominantly women) remain completely absent from the budget. They are excluded from all four Labour Codes. PM Shram Yogi Maandhan technically covers them, but enrollment requires a monthly contribution that most domestic workers cannot sustain. The ILO's Convention 189 on Domestic Workers, which India has not ratified, provides a framework for minimum wage, weekly rest, and social security that India's budget does not engage with at any level.

The complete picture. For India's ~48 crore informal workers: Rs 482 crore (Rs 10/worker). For formalisation of workers already near the formal sector: Rs 20,083 crore. For existing formal sector pensioners: Rs 11,144 crore. The budget's employment architecture has clear priorities, and they do not include the vast majority of Indian workers.

DFG 25 (School) + DFG 26 (Higher Ed)

Education: growth that barely keeps pace

Combined education spending rose to Rs 1,39,289 crore (+8.3% over BE 25-26), but 14% underspending in RE 25-26 signals persistent execution failures. The real action is in Central Sector schemes (university townships, AVGC labs) while Centrally Sponsored Schemes, which carry the bulk of school education, grew just 0.6%. Sources: DFG 25, DFG 26.

₹1,39,289 cr
Total Education
₹83,562 cr
School (DFG 25)
₹55,727 cr
Higher Ed (DFG 26)
14%
Underspent in 25-26

School Education (DFG 25) · View DFG →

ComponentActual 24-25BE 25-26RE 25-26BE 26-27YoY %
CSS (Samagra Shiksha, PM-SHRI, POSHAN)50,66962,66053,73063,010+0.6%
Central Sector Schemes3534298793,631+746%
AVGC Labs (15K schools + 500 colleges)NEWNEW
Establishment47535155+3.8%

Higher Education (DFG 26) · View DFG →

ComponentActual 24-25BE 25-26RE 25-26BE 26-27YoY %
Central Sector Schemes4,3025,1766,7588,292+60.2%
5 University TownshipsNEWNEW
Girls' STEM HostelsNEWNEW
CSS3011,8158001,850+1.9%
IITs/IIMs/Institutions14,09015,43115,90716,867+9.3%

The two-speed story. CS schemes surged 746% in school education and 60% in higher education, driven by new flagship announcements (AVGC labs, university townships, STEM hostels). But CSS, the bulk of school education funding at Rs 63,010 crore, grew only 0.6%, which is a real-terms decline. Samagra Shiksha, PM-SHRI schools, and PM POSHAN together face the same chronic pattern: generous BEs, quiet RE cuts, and headlines driven by new capital projects rather than the operational funding that keeps schools running. An "Education to Employment" High-Level Standing Committee has been announced but has no allocated budget line.

NEP 2020 spending gap: The National Education Policy targeted 6% of GDP for education. Actual allocation is approximately 2.9% of GDP. The 15th Finance Commission had sector-specific education grants (Rs 4,800 cr/year). The 16th FC discontinued these entirely.

DFG 46 (Health & Family Welfare)

Health: the PMSSN shell game

Total health allocation is Rs 1,01,709 crore (+6.0%). But Rs 30,725 crore of this flows through the off-budget PMSSN fund, not from fresh budget allocation. Strip out the off-budget component and NHM budget support actually declined. Sources: DFG 46, PRS.

₹1,01,709 cr
Total Health DFG
₹30,725 cr
Off-Budget (PMSSN)
~1.9%
Health as % GDP
2.5%
NHP 2017 Target

Health Scheme Allocations (Rs crore) · View DFG →

SchemeActual 24-25BE 25-26RE 25-26BE 26-27YoY %
NHM (gross)33,52036,08536,18539,390+9.2%
NHM (net of PMSSN top-up)36,08531,820-11.8%
PMJAY (Ayushman Bharat)7,0197,5007,5009,500+26.7%
PMABHIM (Infrastructure)4,0625,8466,0524,770-18.4%
Allied Health Professionals1,000NEW
PMSSN Fund Draw30,72530,725

Cess Diversion

17%
PRS found only 17% of Health & Education Cess actually reached PMSSN in FY 24-25. The mandated transfer ratio is 25%.

Primary Care Share

40%
NHP 2017 target: 66% to primary care. Actual: 40%. Hospital-centric model persists despite rhetoric of primary care transformation.

The NHM accounting puzzle. NHM's gross allocation appears to grow 9.2% (Rs 36,085 to Rs 39,390 crore). But Rs 7,570 crore of that comes from PMSSN cess proceeds, not new budget money. Subtract the off-budget top-up and net NHM budget support is actually Rs 31,820 crore, which represents an 11.8% decline. The 15th Finance Commission's health grants (Rs 4,800 crore/year) have been discontinued by the 16th FC, creating an additional gap. PMJAY expansion to gig workers was quietly dropped.

DFG 28 (Environment, Forests & Climate Change)

Environment: breathing without a budget

Total environment allocation rose 10.1% to Rs 3,759 crore, but the growth is driven entirely by CAMPA (forests). NCAP, the national clean air programme, was cut 30%. Climate Action Plan gets Rs 50 crore. Sources: DFG 28, CREA, CSE.

₹3,759 cr
Total Environment
₹1,091 cr
NCAP (down 30%)
₹50 cr
Climate Action Plan
23/130
Cities On Target

Environment Scheme Allocations (Rs crore) · View DFG →

SchemeActual 24-25BE 25-26RE 25-26BE 26-27YoY %
NCAP / Pollution Control1,0031,5521,4371,091-29.7%
CAMPA (Afforestation)8591,2001,1951,700+41.7%
Project Tiger152175185200+14.3%
Climate Action Plan55656350-23.1%
Other / Establishment722421602718+70.5%

Fund Misallocation

64%
Of NCAP + 15th FC funds spent on road dust (water sprinklers, sweeping). Industrial emissions: 0.61%. CREA calls this "action without impact."

Delhi: 5-Year RTI

17%
Delhi spent just 17% of NCAP air pollution funds over 5 years, per RTI data. Most non-attainment cities show similar patterns.

Zero mention in the Budget Speech. Air pollution kills an estimated 1.6 million Indians annually (Lancet). NCAP was cut from Rs 1,552 cr (BE 25-26) to Rs 1,091 cr, a 30% reduction. Only 23 of 130 NCAP cities met even the revised (weakened) PM2.5 target. The programme has no PM2.5 source apportionment requirement. CREA's 2025 report found most cities lack even basic monitoring infrastructure. Meanwhile, the Climate Action Plan gets Rs 50 crore, roughly what the central government spends on a single interchange flyover.

DFG 101 (Women & Child Development)

Women & Child: near-zero real growth

The ministry's allocation grew 4.8% nominally to Rs 28,183 crore, which translates to roughly zero real growth at current inflation. RE 25-26 was 9.4% below BE, confirming persistent underspending. New schemes (SHE-Marts, Lakhpati Didi expansion) were announced without corresponding budget increases. Source: DFG 101.

₹28,183 cr
Total WCD
+4.8%
Nominal Growth
9.4%
Underspent in 25-26
0.08%
% of GDP

WCD Scheme Allocations (Rs crore) · View DFG →

SchemeActual 24-25BE 25-26RE 25-26BE 26-27YoY %
CSS (umbrella)24,59526,64024,07927,890+4.7%
Mission Shakti(umbrella)
POSHAN Abhiyaan(umbrella)
Saksham Anganwadi(umbrella)
SHE-MartsNEWNEW
Lakhpati Didi (1 crore target)(expanded)
Other CS170165210203+23.0%
Establishment77858590+5.9%

Care economy at 0.08% of GDP. NIPFP recommended allocating 1% of GDP to the care economy (childcare, elderly care, disability support). Actual WCD allocation is 0.08% of GDP. Anganwadi workers remain underpaid (Rs 4,500-5,000/month across most states). POSHAN Abhiyaan, NFHS-5 showed some stunting improvements, but child wasting (acute malnutrition) remains among the world's worst at 19.3%. New SHE-Marts and Lakhpati Didi are announcement-heavy but come without visible incremental budget lines in the DFG.

Lakhpati Didi: Target of 1 crore women SHG members earning Rs 1 lakh annually. The Budget Speech mentions it prominently, but the funding mechanism remains unclear. The incremental cost is not visible as a separate line in DFG 101. It appears to be absorbed within the existing DAY-NRLM allocation under Rural Development (DFG 87), which was itself cut 15.8%.

DFG 60 (Housing & Urban) + DFG 63 (Drinking Water)

Infrastructure: allocation without execution

Urban and rural infrastructure present the budget's starkest execution crisis. Housing & Urban Affairs was cut 11.6%. Drinking Water (Jal Jeevan Mission) had 69% of its allocation unspent. Both repeat the same inflated BE numbers with no accountability for last year's delivery failure. Sources: DFG 60, DFG 63.

₹85,522 cr
Housing & Urban
-11.6%
Urban YoY
₹74,895 cr
Drinking Water (JJM)
69%
JJM Unspent (25-26)

Housing & Urban Affairs (Rs crore) · View DFG →

SchemeActual 24-25BE 25-26RE 25-26BE 26-27YoY %
CS Schemes (incl. PMAY-U)33,32139,13934,14737,149-5.1%
CSS (Smart Cities, SBM-U)16,05953,60418,95044,162-17.6%
SASCI SchemeRs 2L cr to statesNEW
Establishment2,0182,0642,0312,061-0.1%

Drinking Water & Sanitation (Rs crore) · View DFG →

SchemeActual 24-25BE 25-26RE 25-26BE 26-27YoY %
Jal Jeevan Mission (CSS)25,82374,19223,00074,862+0.9%
Unspent gap (25-26)51,195
Establishment30343133-2.9%

JJM: The Worst Underspender

Rs 51,195 cr
Allocated but unspent in 2025-26. Rs 74,226 cr BE vs Rs 23,000 cr RE. 100% tap water target severely behind schedule. BE 26-27 repeats the same headline number.

Urban CSS Collapse

-17.6%
Smart Cities, SBM-Urban, AMRUT: from Rs 53,604 cr to Rs 44,162 cr. RE was Rs 18,950 cr, meaning only 35% of BE was actually used.

The SASCI announcement. The Budget Speech announced the SASCI scheme with "Rs 2 lakh crore support to states for urban infrastructure." This is not a direct allocation. It appears to be a loan/guarantee framework spread over multiple years, similar to previous announcements that create large headline numbers without immediate budget commitment. The mechanism and drawdown conditions are not specified in the DFG.

DFG 1 (Agriculture) + DFG 15 (Food & PD)

Agriculture: PM-KISAN frozen since 2019

Agriculture allocation grew 2.6% to Rs 1,30,561 crore, below inflation. Food subsidy (Rs 2,35,047 crore) remains the largest social expenditure and one of the few where RE exceeded BE, reflecting actual demand-driven spending on NFSA. But PM-KISAN at Rs 6,000/year per farmer has not been indexed since its 2019 launch. Sources: DFG 1, DFG 15.

₹1,30,561 cr
Agriculture
₹2,35,047 cr
Food Subsidy
₹60,000 cr
PM-KISAN
~25%
PM-KISAN Real Decline

Agriculture (DFG 1) Key Schemes · View DFG →

SchemeBE 26-27Note
PM-KISAN60,000Rs 6,000/yr per farmer. Not indexed since 2019. Real value decline ~25%
PM Fasal Bima Yojna(crop insurance)Major CSS. Premium subsidy model
Natural Farming Mission(expanding)Budget Speech priority. Scheme details awaited
Krishionnati Yojna(agri development)Umbrella CSS for horticulture, marketing, mechanisation

Food & Public Distribution (DFG 15) · View DFG →

SchemeActual 24-25BE 25-26RE 25-26BE 26-27YoY %
Food Subsidy (NFSA)2,28,255
PM Garib Kalyan Anna Yojna(free grain extension)
Total DFG 152,07,7072,11,4062,35,0482,35,047+11.2%

Food Subsidy: Positive Signal

RE > BE
One of very few ministries where Revised Estimate (Rs 2,35,048 cr) exceeded Budget Estimate (Rs 2,11,406 cr). Free grain commitments under NFSA are binding and demand-driven.

PM-KISAN: Frozen

Rs 6,000/yr
Unchanged since February 2019. With ~25% cumulative inflation, real value per farmer has fallen from Rs 6,000 to approximately Rs 4,500 in 2019 rupees.

The largest social programme nobody discusses. Food subsidy at Rs 2.35 lakh crore is the single largest social sector expenditure, larger than defence. It is one of the few genuinely demand-driven programmes where the government cannot easily underspend because NFSA entitlements are legally binding. This stands in sharp contrast to schemes like JJM or Skill Development where BEs are routinely inflated and then quietly cut in RE. The food system works precisely because it leaves less room for executive discretion.

Accountability

What was promised vs what was delivered

Budget 2025-26 commitments vs 2026-27 allocations, cross-referenced with the Implementation of Budget Announcements 2025-26.

16th Finance Commission: Key Decisions · Explanatory Memo

ProvisionRecommendationGovt ActionImpact on States
Vertical Devolution41% of net Union taxAccepted (same as 15th FC)No increase despite rising CSS cost-sharing burden
Revenue Deficit GrantsNOT recommendedN/AStates with revenue deficits get zero relief
Sector-Specific GrantsNOT recommendedN/A15th FC health grants (Rs 4,800 cr/yr) discontinued
CSS RestructuringRecommended rationalisationDEFERREDStates continue bearing rising CSS costs
Local Body GrantsRs 7,91,493 cr (2026-31)Accepted60:40 Rural:Urban. Performance conditions
Disaster ManagementRs 2,04,401 cr corpusAccepted75:25 cost-sharing

OOMF Targets: Where Accountability Vanishes

The Output-Outcome Monitoring Framework is meant to track whether money delivers results. Several key entries reveal how the government avoids measurable commitments:

MinistrySchemeOutput IndicatorTarget 26-27Outcome Status
Rural DevVB-G RAM GPersondays generatedNOT AMENABLENOT AMENABLE
Rural DevPMAY-GHouses completed32 lakhIncremental
Rural DevDAY-NRLMSHGs promoted30 lakhNot specified
Rural DevPMGSYRoad length5,000 kmIncremental
HealthNHM (AAMs)AAMs with 12 packages92%Progressive
HealthNHM (Sickle Cell)Screenings1 croreIncremental
EnvironmentNCAPCities meeting target23 of 13018% compliance

VB-G RAM G, the flagship Rs 95,692 crore rural employment scheme, has no quantified performance target. The OOMF document says both output and outcome targets are "not amenable." This is the government's own admission that it cannot or will not measure the impact of its largest new social programme.